SURVEYS SHOW RISING ELECTABILITY OF PRABOWO-HATTA DUO

By Andi Abdussalam
Jakarta, June 5 (Antara) - Surveys show that the electability statistics of the Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa presidential and vice presidential candidate pair have risen since the registration with the General Elections Commission (KPU).          The results of a survey conducted by the Katapedia Indonesia survey institute showed that the electability of the Prabowo-Hatta duo at the social media networks was experiencing an upward trend as compared to the electability of the Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla (Jokowi-JK) pair.          "In the first week after the registration with the KPU, the electability statistic of the Jokowi-JK pair was 61.31 percent, far higher than that of the Prabowo-Hatta duo, which was only 38.69 percent. Yet, in the second week after registration, the electability of Prabowo-Hatta increased to 48.24 percent, while that of Jokowi-Hatta dropped to 51.76 percent," Andhika Dwi P, director of Katapedia Indonesia, said on Thursday.          Meanwhile, the Indonesian Polling and Survey Institute (SPIN) had also released the results of its survey showing that the electability statistics of Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa pair had steadily increased since early this month.          "Based on the results of a telephone survey conducted between June 1 and June 4, 2014, the electability of the Prabowo-Hatta duo is increasing," executive director of SPIN Igor Dirgantara said in a press release.          Igor stated that about 44.9 percent of the respondents supported the Prabowo-Hatta pair, while 40.1 percent supported the Jokowi Widodo-Jusuf Kalla duo. About 15 percent of the respondents declined to give an opinion.            According to Igor, the electability trend of the Prabowo-Hatta pair is increasing since the General Elections Commission held a "Peaceful Campaign Declaration" on June 3, 2014.          The Jokowi-JK and the Prabowo-Hatta presidential and vice presidential candidate pairs will contest in the upcoming July 9 presidential election.          The Jokow-JK duo is supported by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), the National Democrat Party (Nasdem), the National Awakening Party (PKB), and the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) with 207 seats or 36.96 percent of the House of Representatives (DPR)'s 560 seats.          Meanwhile, the Prabowo-Hatta duo is supported by the Greater Indonesia Movement (Gerindra), the Golkar Party, the National Mandate Party, the Prosperous Justice Party, the United Development Party (PPP), and the Crescent and Star Party (PBB) with 292 seats or 52.14 percent in the parliament.          Katapedia Indonesia Director Andhika said the success team of Jokowi-JK should work hard and take the initiative to anticipate the downward trend in the electability of its presidential and vice presidential candidates.          He said after officially registering with KPU, Prabowo in the first week received many bad publications on the Twitter social media channel, with many negative nudges on issues ranging from money to human rights violations as well as other negative campaigns.          In the second week, the Prabowo team began winning positive responses, such as the support of Bandung Mayor Ridwan Kamil, Prabowo's commitment to safeguarding national assets and pledges to fight for the people's interest.          The campaign launched by the Prabowo-Hatta camp raised the slogans #OneMyChoice #PrabowoForAll, and #SaveIndonesia.          The Jokowi-JK pair in the first week won positive response on Twitter with regard to the strengthening of the rupiah value, national awaking issues, sea toll construction and Jokowi's modesty.          However, in the second week, the Jokowi-JK pair's electability declined, despite presence of support by Dahlan Iskan (state-owned enterprise minister). Other issues supposed to cause the decline in the electability of the Jokowi-JK duo included the image of Jokowi's 'blusukan' (visits), star wars, fear of big coalition and the fact it got the electoral sequence number 2.          The hashtags raised by the Jokowi-JK duo were #JokowiJKsong, #JokowiIsUs, #IVoteForJokowi, #RefusingToForget and #MilitaryProJokowi.          "The Prabowo-Hatta campaign is more effective," Andhika said.          Katapedia also monitored perception in the social media on the presidential pairs. 'Words' appearing on social media by users regarding the Prabowo-Hatta pair included 'MychoiseIsOne', 'Support', 'Democrat', 'Golkar', 'PKS' and 'Gerindra'. However, words appearing on social media by users regarding the Jokowi-JK pair were among others 'Porgam', 'Action', 'mission', 'Vision', 'DahlanIskan', and 'Slank.'     "Based on the data, Prabowo-Hatta's media team is better than that of the Jokowi-JK pair," Andhika said.          Thus, the Prabowo-Hatta pair's electability has a chance to exceed that of Jokowi-JK. Katapedia predicted that the competition between the two pairs will be stiff and none of them will win a landslide victory.          The upward trend of Prabowo-Hatta pair's electability was also boosted by respondents' preference.          According to SPIN executive director Igor Dirgantara, his survey showed that respondents preferred a pair with a military-civilian background instead of a pair of civilians.         He said about 43.7 percent preferred a military-civilian pair, while 41.3 percent opted for a civilian-civilian pair.          Prabowo Subianto is a retired army lieutenant general and a former commandant general of the Military's special elite force Kopassus. His running mate Hatta Rajasa is a civilian, who had held different ministerial posts.          Meanwhile, Jokowi is a former mayor of Solo in Central Java and the current Jakarta Governor. He has a business background. His running mate is a former vice president and is a businessman too. Both Jokowi and Jusuf Kalla are civilians.          The SPIN conducted interviews of 1,070 respondents from 10 big cities in Indonesia. The respondents were randomly chosen from Jakarta, Surabaya, Bandung, Semarang, Yogyakarta, Padang, Palembang, Manado, Kupang, and Balikpapan.          Although the electability of the Prabowo-Hatta pair is rising compared to Jokowi-JK's, the Soegeng Sarjadi School of Government (SSSG)'s survey found that Jokowi-JK's is still most preferred.          The Jokowi-JK duo is preferred by 42.65 percent respondents, while 28.35 percent prefer the Prabowo-Hatta pair for Indonesia's next president and vice president in the July 9 election, revealed Soegeng Sarjadi School of Government (SSSG)'s survey.         SSSG Executive Director Fadjroel Rachman stated on Thursday that 29 percent of those surveyed are still undecided.          Rachman stated that 56 percent of the people surveyed preferred the Prabowo-Hatta campaign slogan of "Indonesia Rise," while 44 percent liked Jokowi-JK's slogan of "Indonesia Great."     "The pair considered capable of overcoming the problems in Indonesia is Jokowi-JK, supported by 47 percent of those surveyed. The Prabowo-Hatta duo is only supported by 33 percent on the issue," Fadjroel pointed out.           As per survey results, 47 percent of the respondents considered the Jokowi-JK pair to have a futuristic view, while only 21 percent of them shared the same viewpoint about the Prabowo-Hatta duo.***1*** (T.A014/INE/H-YH) EDITED BY INE (T.SYS/A/BESSR/A/Yosep) 05-06-2014 20: