COALITION OPTIONS NARROWING FOR DEMOCRATIC PARTY

By Andi Abdussalam

Jakarta, May 17 (Antara) - The ruling Democratic Party (PD) has not taken any decision yet, whether to form a coalition, join existing alliances or become an opposition party, but it has assured that it will decide soon.          "The Democratic Party is still working hard. It will make everything clear in its national working meeting on May 18," PD General Chairman Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono told the press while announcing the winner of PD's presidential candidate convention on Friday evening.          The Democratic Party has been conducting a presidential candidate convention since September 2013 to select its presidential candidate for the upcoming July 9 presidential race.         Convention Committee Chairman Maftuh Basyuni announced on Friday that Dahlan Iskan, current state enterprises minister, has been selected from 11 shortlisted candidates.          The PD leadership meeting will now decide its official political steps and the presidential candidate.            Yudhoyono, who is also the President, said the meeting will hear the cadre's aspirations regarding the political steps after they consider the results of the April 9 legislative elections and of the convention.          The Democratic Party secured only 10.9 percent of the total votes in the April 9 legislative elections, failing to achieve a minimum 25 percent of the votes (or 20 percent of the 560 parliamentary seats) to enable it to nominate its own presidential candidate.           "The Democratic Party is aware of the fact that in the 2014 legislative elections, it could only win 10 percent of the votes. The people might want another political party to nominate a presidential candidate as their leader in the coming presidential elections. With only 10 percent, PD cannot nominate its own candidate. This is different from the 2004 and 2009 presidential races when PD was able to have its own candidate," said Yudhoyono.          The option for PD is to join one of the two existing coalitions, namely the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI) with Joko Widodo or Jokowi as its presidential candidate, and the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) with Prabowo Subianto as the presidential hopeful, or to form its own coalition. The other option is to become an opposition party.          Is it possible for PD to form an alliance of its own? Of the 10 political parties which reached the parliamentary threshold in the legislative elections, apart from PD, only the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) have not yet clearly spoken of a coalition with Jokowi's PDIP or Prabowo Subianto's Gerindra.          So far, the National Awakening Party (PKB), the National Democrat Party (NasDem) and the Golkar Party are known to have closed ranks with PDIP, while the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP) have officially declared an alliance with Gerindra.          The parties with which the PD can ally if it wants to form its own coalition are the PKS and Hanura, the latter having indicated on several occasions that it will join the winning coalition. Surveys indicate that PDIP has the biggest chance to win the presidential elections.           So, if Hanura joins the winning coalition, PD will have only one political party to ally with, namely PKS. However, it might still not meet the 25 percent requirement and not be able to nominate its own presidential candidate because PD and PKS put together have only 17.69 percent of the vote or 18.03 percent of the parliamentary seats (the minimum requirement being 25 percent of the votes or 20 percent of the seats).         However, things can change within seconds in politics. Golkar, for example, still could change its stand regarding a coalition with PDIP.          The Golkar Party, which came second in the recent legislative elections, will still hold a national leadership meeting from May 18 to 19 to decide whether or not to nominate its own presidential candidate for the July 9 poll.         "This sixth national leadership meeting will specifically discuss the question of a presidential candidate. Whether the Golkar Party will nominate its own presidential candidate or vice-presidential candidate will certainly be based on the directives from the general chairman and approved by all cadres," Mahyudin, the chief of the meeting's organizing committee, stated here on Wednesday night.          Meanwhile, PDIP executive chairman Effendi Simbolon said PDIP's tie-up with Golkar is not yet final because the meeting between Jokowi and Golkar Chairman Aburizal Bakrie on Tuesday was just an informal one. "I don't know whether it was a coalition meeting or for expressing empathy. It is okay to meet to express empathy," said Effendi Simbolon on Wednesday.          Senior researcher Danil Rembeth of the Pusat Data Bersama (PDB) data center said PD and Golkar could establish another coalition axis so that there would be three coalitions contesting the presidential elections.         "Today, Yudhoyono (PD chairman) and Aburizal Bakrie (Golkar chairman) met. Although the meeting was said to be merely for tea, I believe they talked politics," Daniel Rembeth said on Wednesday.          Daniel argued that if PD and Golkar agree to establish a new coalition (apart from those of PDIP and Gerindra), the competition among presidential candidates in the coming presidential elections will be more lively. "This could lead to two rounds of presidential elections," he added.         However, if the present coalition constellation (PDIP-PKB-NasDem-Golkar and Gerindra-PAN-PPP) remains unchanged, it would be difficult for PDIP to form a new alliance. After all, Hanura has said that it will join the winning coalition.          If PD allies with PKS and Hanura, it will have a collective 20.88 percent of the seats in the House and will be able to nominate a candidate.  If it allies with Golkar, on the other hand, the coalition will have a 24.94 percent of the votes or about 27.14 of the seats in the House (meeting the minimum requirement).          In the meantime, the emergence of Dahlan Iskan as the winner of the PD convention is too late, according to political analyst Susilo Utomo of the Semarang Diponegoro University.          "Two coalitions under PDIP and Gerindra with their respective presidential candidates, Jokowi and Prabowo, have been formed and they are strong contenders in the elections. So it is too late if the PD wants to form a new alliance," Susilo Utomo said in Semarang, Central Java, on Friday.          He said that Dahlan had won a contest in the convention which, in principle, had ended. In other words, PD has lost its momentum because the two existing coalitions are already too strong. "Jokowi and Prabowo have controlled the public perception. It is too strong to be challenged by Dahlan," he argued.          Utomo said political parties which have not yet adopted a clear political stand with regard to the upcoming presidential elections are PD, Golkar and Hanura.          "There is a chance for PD and Golkar to form a new coalition. But they will face tough negotiations with regard to the nomination of their common presidential and vice presidential candidates," Utomo added.***1*** EDITED BY INE (T.A014/INE) (T.A014/A/BESSR/A. Abdussalam) 17-05-2014 12:13: