Jumat, 04 April 2014

SURVEYS SHOW PDIP, GOLKAR TO COMPETE FOR FIRST PLACE

 By Andi Abdussalam
          Jakarta, April 4 (Antara) - Twelve political parties at the national level will conclude their campaigns on Saturday and enter the cooling-down period on Sunday, prior to the upcoming April 9 legislative elections.
         During the 21-day campaign period, which began March 16, all political parties organized campaigns and disclosed their programs in regions across the country in efforts to attract the support of 186.8 million eligible voters and win a portion of the 560 available parliamentary seats.
         Surveys show that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) and the Golkar Party will be in a tight race to win first place in next week's legislative elections, while third place is expected to be won by the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra).

 
         The Political Communication Institute (Polcomm Institute), the Charta Politika Indonesia (CPI) and the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) surveys placed the three political parties, PDIP, Golkar and Gerindra, as the would-be big three winners of the legislative elections.
         For PDIP, the naming of popular Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo, better known as Jokowi, serves as a magnet that boosts its electability and will increase the votes it receives in the 2014 general elections.    
    "PDIP is able to raise its electability to 23.1 percent based upon respondent's choices after it nominated Jokowi as its presidential hopeful," Polcomm Institute Director Heri Budianto told a press conference on Thursday.

         Heri explained that respondents were of the view that PDIP, which had been consistently taking the opposition side, defending the common people and, as a nationalist party, promoting the ideology of the founding father and first president Soekarno.
         PDIP, in the 2009 legislative elections, secured third place, winning 14.03 percent of the total votes. Their total, however, was below the ruling Democratic Party (PD), which won first place and secured 20.85 percent votes, and Golkar Party, which won 14.45 percent of the votes, taking second place.
         Heri said that based on his institute's survey results, Golkar is expected to win second place with 17.3 percent and Gerindra will finish in third place with 7.7 percent. In the 2009 elections, Gerindra was ranked in the eighth position, winning only 4.46 percent.
         The Polcomm Institute survey results placed the ruling party PD in fourth place in the upcoming election with 5.1 percent, followed by National Democrat (NasDem), which is a new party, with 4.5 percent.  "However, respondents who did not yet make a choice reached 23.3 percent," Heri said.
         He explained that Golkar secured second place because the New Order government's political machine had the ability in managing the party and had experience in politics and government.
         Golkar was also viewed by respondents as the most mature political party, which had the ability to raise campaign themes which highlighted leadership issues and prosperity during the government of former president Soeharto.
         "The Gerindra Party is placed in the third position because respondents saw new expectations from Prabowo Subianto, who they view as being firm and wielding authority," Heri said.
         The Democratic Party was still trusted by the survey's respondents, because the party is led by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and will continue Yudhoyono's programs, according to Heri.
         The Polcomm Institute director said that respondents choose NasDem party because they are convinced that as a new political party, it will bring new hope and change to Indonesia. The Polcomm Institute conducted the survey on March 19-29, 2014, using a random sampling method. It has a margin error of 2.9 percent.
         The same survey results were also shown by the Charta Politika Indonesia (CPI), which placed PDIP, Golkar and Gerindra in first, second and third places.
         Based on the results of the public opinion survey conducted from March 1 to March 8, the three political parties could not be defeated by other electoral contestants. This survey also showed that Gerindra shifted to the big three, removing the ruling Democratic Party position from the big three.
         In a December 2013 survey, PDIP's was only receiving 15.5 percent of the total votes, but in March it rose to 21.2 percent. The Golkar Party also rose from 12.6 percent to 16.4 percent and Gerindra from 7.8 percent to 12 percent.
         "Popularity factors, including the popularity of party figures, has influence in this survey," Director of Charta Politika, Yunarto Wijaya, said.
         About 57.8 percent of respondents said they chose PDIP because they were interested in Jokowi. The same was also true of Gerindra, where 47.9 percent of the respondents said they were attracted by Prabowo Subianto. In the December 2013 survey, 55.4 percent of respondents said they were interested in Gerindra because Prabowo was a former Commandant General of the Army's elite special force, Kopassus.
         "We found a unique reason with Golkar, where 32.8 percent said they chose Golkar because it represents the New Order government-Soeharto," Yunarto said.
         If PDIP, Golkar and Geridra are competing for the top big three position, the winning party in the 2009 legislative elections, namely the ruling Democratic Party, will be competing in the middle position, together with the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the United Development Party (PPP).
         PPP and PKB, respectively, were in the sixth and seventh positions in the 2009 elections with 5.32 percent and 4.94 percent of the votes.
         In the meantime, the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) survey results also show that the PDIP, Golkar and Gerindra were in the top three positions.
         Golkar and PDIP will be the parties that have a chance to win the legislative elections on April 9, according to the survey results.
         "Based on the complete results of political parties' electability in March, Golkar gets 21.9 percent while PDIP 21.1 percent," LSI researcher Adjie Alfarabi reiterated at a press conference on Wednesday.
         He explained that if the margin of votes between the two parties was slim, then Golkar would have a chance to receive more parliamentary seats than PDIP, because Golkar's vote distribution is wider and spread evenly, especially in regions outside Java, while PDIP's votes are still concentrated in Java.
         He added that the two parties' votes will be difficult to overcome by other political parties, in view of the parties' electability.
         Adjie predicted that Gerindra will finish third with 11.1 percent of the votes, followed by the ruling Democrat Party (7.6 percent), PKB (5.9 percent), Prosperous Justice Party/PKS (5.2 percent), People Conscience Party/Hanura (4.5 percent), Nasdem (4.3 percent), PPP (3.4 percent), National Mandate Party/PAN (3.0 percent), PBB (0.9 percent) and Indonesian Justice and Unity Party/PKPI (0.5) percent.
         PAN and Hanura were in the fifth and ninth positions (they win 6.01 percent and 3.7 percent of the votes)  in the 2009 elections, while the NasDem and PKPI are new electoral contestants.
         According to LSI, only 10 parties will be able to send their representatives to the parliament, namely PDIP, Golkar, Gerindra, Democrat Party, PKB, PKS, Hanura, Nasdem, PPP and PAN.
         "Although the electability of PPP and PAN is below 3.5 percent, the two still have a chance to pass the parliamentary threshold," Alfarabi asserted.***1***

(T.A014/INE/H-YH)

(T.A014/A/BESSR/A/Yosep) 04-04-2014 22:5

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