Jakarta, June 5 (Antara) - Increasing export performance and investment coupled with the optimism demonstrated by the banking sector and corporations will help improve economic activities and boost growth this year.
The improving conditions are believed to be positive factors that will drive up economic growth to exceed the target set at 5.1 percent in the 2017 State Budget (APBN). Thus, it is reasonable for the 2017 Revised State Budget (APBNP) to set a higher growth target.
According to Agus Martowardojo, the governor of Bank Indonesia (BI/the central bank), an increase by 0.2 percent in the economic growth, set at 5.1 percent in the APBN, to 5.3 percent in the APBNP is realistic and logical.
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani has said the economic growth this year can exceed the target of 5.1 percent set in the APBN. Positive economic conditions can galvanize the growth in 2017 to reach 5.3 percent.
The finance minister indicated several factors raising optimism that the economy this year will grow better than the previous prediction. She, among others, pointed out better export performance.
The other factor highlighted by the minister is the investment growth, which she is convinced will show an improvement in line with the rising optimism of the banking sector and corporations. This year, the banking credit expansion is expected to reach 10-12 percent.
Additionally, household contribution will also improve, though the inflation rate will slightly be higher than that in 2016.
BI has forecast higher economic growth. Hence, with such encouraging conditions, the central bank has maintained its previous growth projection. It maintains the economic growth target set in the range of between five percent and 5.4 percent year-on-year (yoy).
"We are convinced our optimism is reasonable," Martowardojo stated after the signing of a cooperation agreement on electronic payment system on toll roads.
According to BI's quarterly growth forecast, Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of this year is expected to reach 5.11 percent yoy. In the third and fourth quarters, it will exceed 5.2 percent yoy. In the first quarter, the growth was recorded at 5.01 percent yoy.
On separate occasions, economists have also forecast better economic performance this year. The main drivers are exports and household consumption. Exports will increase as commodity prices are improving. Household consumption will contribute to growth, as it is supported by the people's expenditures during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan and the subsequent Eid ul-Fitr or Lebaran festivities.
Hence, Andry Asmoro, an economist at PT Bank Mandiri, has forecast that the economic growth this year could reach 5.2 percent.
"Besides exports, household consumption in the subsequent quarters can reach 5.1 percent, higher than that in the first quarter," he remarked.
Mulyani has also cited macro assumptions that the government will set in the 2018 State Budget. Among the macro assumptions, the minister disclosed the economic growth forecast at between 5.4 percent and 6.1 percent.
The inflation rate is forecast at 3.5 percent, give or take 1 percent; the rupiah exchange rate at Rp13,500-Rp13,800 per US dollar; and the three-month government treasury bills in the range of 4.8-5.6 percent.
Most lawmakers in the House of Representatives (DPR) consider it important to create quality economic growth through macroeconomic assumptions and fiscal policies in the draft 2018 State Budget.
"The economic growth target next year should be adjusted to the efforts to lower the poverty rate and narrow the social gap," Adisastrya Suryo Sulisto of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle faction of the DPR had said at a plenary session on Tuesday (May 30).
Sulisto, who is also a member of Commission VI on investment and trade of the DPR, expressed hope that the government would accord priority to expenditures that directly impact the people's real activities.
"We laud the government's step to accelerate infrastructure expenditure, so that it could offset the logistics cost. The government should consistently work towards its aim of accelerating equitable development that could soon be felt by the people," Sulisto noted.
Golkar Party legislator Sarmuji highlighted the importance of increasing state revenues in the Draft State Budget 2018, so that the budget posture would not be balanced with a deficit but with high revenue.
"The taxation sector should be expanded. The government should therefore expand the tax base," he stated.
Meanwhile, Cucun Ahmad Syamsurijal of the National Awakening Party faction stated that the government needs to make additional efforts to increase its revenues.
"It can be observed from the stagnant tax ratio at 11.02 percent. The government can increase the tax ratio to 13 percent," Syamsurijal remarked.
The government, through the Ministry of Finance, has set to increase its tax revenue ratio against the gross domestic product to 11-12 percent or higher than that in 2016 at 10.36 percent.
Director General of Taxation of the Ministry of Finance Ken Dwijugiasteadi said his office will optimize its efforts to broaden its tax base after the implementation of the tax amnesty program.
Responding to the legislator's call for a tax revenue ratio of 13 percent, the director general acknowledged that it is difficult for his office to achieve it.
"I am afraid it will be inconsequential if the ratio is set at 13 percent and would therefore be akin to 'extorting taxpayers,'" the director general remarked.***3***
(A014/INE)EDITED BY INE(T.A014/A/BESSR/F. Assegaf) 05-06-2017 11:57:3 |
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