Jakarta, May 26 (Antara) - Although the economic growth is lower than
the first-quarter forecast for 2015, Indonesia's central bank, Bank
Indonesia (BI) is convinced that the country's economy will grow based
on its estimates this year.
The BI still maintains its projection that the Indonesian economy in
2015 will at least reach the lower limit of its estimate at 5.4 percent.
The BI has projected that the country's economy this year will grow at a
rate between 5.4 percent and 5.8 percent. However, the economic growth
in the first quarter was recorded at only 4.71 percent.
"BI is of the viewpoint that the country's economic growth this year
will at least be at the lower limit of its prediction at 5.4 percent. It
will be at the lower limit of its 5.4-5.8 percent predication. However,
BI will wait and watch whether it needs to make a review in the second
quarter of 2015," BI Governor Agus D.W. Martowardojo remarked last week,
(May 20).
The governor expressed optimism that the economy in the second quarter
will grow faster. Thus, in 2016, Indonesia's economic performance will
be better as compared to 2015 and will record a growth in a range
between 5-6 percent, according to Martowardojo.
"We predict that in 2016, we will not exceed the 6 percent limit. So,
we estimate that Indonesia's economic growth would be in a range of 5-6
percent in 2016," Martowardojo added.
With regard to the economic growth this year, economic observer Thomas
Ola Langoday from the University of Widya Mandira (Unwira) Kupang, East
Nusa Tenggara, explained that there was no cause for major concern as
the growth is expected to be stronger during the rest of the year, and
the growth could reach well above 5.0 percent for the entire year.
"There
is no need to harbor much concern as the economic growth at the end of
2015 could still reach 5.0 percent in accordance with the BI's
prediction, although the economy in the first quarter only grew 4.6
percent," the academician remarked.
He forecast that the economic growth until the end of the year could reach 5.3 percent.
"As the government is accelerating the development of infrastructure
projects in the second quarter of this year, the economy will grow
faster to exceed the 5 percent level," Langoday stressed.
In
the second quarter, the government will start disbursing funds for
infrastructure development. Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro noted
that so far the absorption of budget for infrastructure had been low as
the Revised 2015 State Budget (APBN-P) was endorsed by the House only in
February, 2015.
The government is expected to commence the disbursement of budget for
infrastructure development in May. "We hope that in May, the Ministry of
Public Works and Housing, the Ministry of Agriculture and other
ministries/state institutions will realize their infrastructure
expenditure," affirmed Finance Minister Brodjonegoro.
It was believed that the economic slowdown in the past several months
was partly caused by the low absorption of infrastructure budget. Until
April 27, the absorption of infrastructure budget only reached 2.5
percent, or Rp7.3 trillion of the total budget worth Rp290.3 trillion.
As the government has begun disbursing funds for development, the
economic growth is expected to increase.
Thus, the economy in the second quarter is expected to rebound from the
slow growth in the first half of the first quarter.
The Indonesian economy in the first quarter of 2015 grew by 4.71
percent year-on-year, down 0.18 percent from 5.14 percent recorded in
the same period last year. This is the lowest per quarter growth
recorded since 2009.
Therefore, Longaday claimed that the BI's prediction at 5.3-5.4 percent is still realistic.
"The projection is realistic taking into account the current conditions," Langoday noted on Monday (May 25).
He explained that global pressure has also caused a slowdown in the country's economic growth since last year.
The economic observer attributed the slow growth in the initial months
of 2015 to a delay in the rice planting season and the falling prices of
primary commodities.
The imports of basic materials, capital goods, and consumer goods had
also dropped, thereby resulting in a slowdown in investment, he stated.
The government, therefore, needs to forestall the possibility of a
continued decline in the consumption sector, which has been one of the
key drivers of the country's economic growth in the past years.
The decline in the imports of basic materials and capital goods may
indicate a decline in the growth of the manufacturing sector when
consumption is expected to increase during the Islamic fasting months
and Idul Fitri.
According to BI Governor Martowardojo, the global economy has not yet
fully recovered, but Indonesia is optimistic that the global economic
conditions, particularly in countries that are Indonesia's export
destinations, would improve further and have a positive impact on the
nation's economic development.
"It is expected that the government spending and investment will be
bigger while the global economy in Europe, the United States, and Japan
will improve and help to improve the performance of our exports,"
Martowardojo affiremd.
Therefore, the BI has forecast that the country will record a stronger
economic growth in the second half of the year after a slump in the
initial four months.
In the meantime, Vice President Jusuf Kalla noted that Indonesia will
perform better in the second quarter this year after posting
disappointing results in the first quarter.
"In
the second quarter, it will be better," he was quoted by
asia.nikkei.com while convincing the representatives of Asian countries
at a seminar held by Nikkei in Japan on Thursday, last week.
Kalla expressed optimism that the results of various infrastructure
projects in the country will showcase this improvement.
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(T.A014/INE)
EDITED BY INE
(T.A014/A/BESSR/F. Assegaf) 26-05-2015 15:02: |
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