Jakarta, Nov 19 (Antara) - The series of economic policy packages announced by the government since September will start impacting the economy in the fourth quarter of 2015 and boost growth to about six percent next year.
Coordinating Minister for Maritime and Resources Rizal Ramli believes that several instruments in the government's economic policy packages will encourage aggressive economic growth, taking it to six percent in 2016.
The government has, since September, announced six chapters of the economic policy packages and is expected to soon unveil the seventh installment of the package.
"I think that we would be able to grow by six percent in 2016. Our target over the next two years is that our growth should surpass that of India and the Philippines," Rizal stated in a presentation at the Center of Reform on Economics' (CORE's) Economic Outlook 2016, in Jakarta on Wednesday.
However, the impacts of the government¿s policy packages have not yet been significantly felt now.
"As of now, we have not felt the impact of the policy packages, but I think it will be felt in the fourth quarter. Food and beverage industries are also expected to grow and have an impact on household consumption," said Suhariyanto, the deputy for balance and statistical analysis of the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) said early this month. .
The BPS recorded Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2015 at 4.73 percent year-on-year (yoy), much better than the growth in the first quarter at 4.72 and the second quarter at 4.67 percent.
Thus, the accumulated growth up to the third quarter has been recorded at 4.71 percent or better than the accumulated growth rate in the first semester of 2015 at 4.69 percent.
The government has set a growth target for this year at a range of 5.5 percent - 6.0 percent.
However, Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro forecast that Indonesia's economic growth at the end of the year would only reach 4.8 percent, after reviewing the growth till the third quarter.
"It is hard and could only reach a maximum growth of 4.8 percent," the Finance Minister said in Jakarta on Friday (Nov.6).
The CORE has predicted that the Indonesian economy may grow at a rate higher than 5.3 percent assumed in the 2016 state budget. This can be achieved if fiscal policies are coordinated to support the real sector.
The 2016 economic growth will stay within a range of 5.2-5.4 percent, driven by household consumption and government expenditure, CORE executive director Hendri Saparini said on Wednesday.
"Our projection is not too optimistic," she said at a CORE economic Outlook gathering.
"The household consumption growth of 5.3 percent, government expenditure growth of 7 percent, and investment inflows will boost the 2016 economy," she said.
Hendri said the 2016 state budget, which reaches Rp2,095 trillion, is an expansive budget instrument.
However, Minister Rizal Ramli is convinced that the government¿s policy packages could boost economic growth to 6.0 percent next year.
The chief economic minister referred to two government policies that are considered key drivers of growth: the revaluation of companies' assets and the elimination of double taxation of Collective Investment Contract of Real Estate Investment Funds (Real Estate Investment Trusts/REITs).
The revaluation of assets will lead to an increase in any company's expansion funding, thus leading to higher employment opportunities and increased production, said Rizal.
Rizal is optimistic that income tax incentives will attract revaluation of assets of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private companies, thus allowing an increase in the capital capacity.
The increased venture capital capacity leads to a rise in private consumption and sustained growth. The objective is that the consumer purchasing power should increase as a result of enhanced productivity.
Based on the asset revaluation, as suggested in the sixth phase of the policy package, the government has reduced the special rate of income tax to a range of 3 to 6 percent from 10 percent.
Prior to the tax relief, revaluation tax rates could range from 10-30 percent and this has made private and state-owned companies reluctant to undertake a revaluation of assets.
"And do not forget that in 2016, we will greatly rely on tourism to sustain growth. We have already put in place a lot of policies that will make our tourism sector our biggest foreign exchange earner," Rizal said.
In the 2016 budget, the government has set the economic growth target as 5.3 percent (yoy).
Since September 20, 2015, the government has announced six chapters of economic policy packages. The broad guidelines of the series of economic policy packages were issued to overcome economic gloom that is caused by global economic uncertainties and, at the same time, to reinforce the Indonesian economic structure.
In the sixth installment of the policy package, for example, the government stressed the development of special economic zones by providing tax cut incentives.
Also, the government, in the fifth phase of the policy package, offered withholding tax cuts for state-owned and private companies that conduct asset revaluations.
In the meantime, in the fourth phase of the policy package, the government issued a policy on a simple wage system, expansion of the number of Smallholder's credit recipients (KUR) and credit extensions by the Indonesian Export Financing Institution (LPEI) to prevent layoffs.
The government, in the third installment of its policy package, cut the prices of fuel oil, electricity and gas, expansion of KUR recipients and simplification of land licensing for capital investment.
Meanwhile, in the first and second chapters of its policy package, the government issued deregulation for improving the investment climate and expediting the implementation of infrastructure projects.***3***(T.a014/INE/O001)EDITED BY INE
(T.A014/A/BESSR/O. Tamindael) 19-11-2015 15:24:2 |
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar