Jakarta, Feb 8 (Antara) - The government has set an economic growth
target for 2012 at a range of between 6.3 percent and 6.5 percent but in
reality it is only able to reach 6.23 percent.
There are at least three factors blamed for the government failure to
achieve its economic target last year, namely global economic crisis,
high fuel imports and low government expenditure.
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), the Indonesian
economy grew by 6.23 percent last year, falling short of the targeted
6.3-6.5 percent due to global economic crisis.
The global economic meltdown weakened the purchasing power of
Indonesia's traditional export markets. This can be seen in the
country's trade deficit.
"The trade balance is affected by external factors. If the factors are
disturbed, our exports will be affected," Head of the BPS Suryamin said.
Deputy Trade Minister Bayu Krisnamurthi acknowledged that exports in
2012 had weakened causing the trade balance to leave a deficit. "The
economic growth in 2012 grew only at 6.23 percent because the country's
exports were weakening," he said.
BPS data showed that Indonesia's exports dropped 6.61 percent to
US$190.04 billion in 2012 from US$203.5 billion in the year before. Its
imports meanwhile rose 8.02 percent to US$191.57 billion from US$177.44
billion.
Bayu said that actually Indonesia's non oil exports balance was surplus
by Rp40 trillion, yet its oil and gas imports jumped up to Rp50
trillion.
Chief Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa said that oil fuel imports put a
brake on Indonesia's economic growth in 2012. The failure to achieve
the target of 6.5 percent last year was partly caused by large imports
of oil fuel, Hatta said.
Increase in imports including oil fuel imports in 2012 and export contraction had resulted in trade deficit.
Indonesia suffered a trade deficit of US$1.33 billion in 2012, the
first in many years, caused by shrinking exports with imports surging.
BPS said the country's exports shrank 4.6 percent and imports rose 9.92
percent in 2012.
Besides low exports and high imports, the other factor blamed for the
government failure to achieve its economic growth target is the
government's low absorption of capital expenditure funds.
Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo said that the national economic
growth in 2012 could only reach 6.23 percent because the realization of
the government's capital expenditure was low.
"If
the realization of government expenditure was the same as that in the
previous year, I think the 6.3 percent target could be achieved," the
minister said on Thursday.
He said that the realization of the government's capital expenditure in
2011 which reached 83.6 percent was better than the realization of the
same expenditure in 2012 which was only 79.6 percent.
The minister said that the government's capital expenditure for 2012,
which reached Rp140.2 trillion, was bigger than the one allocated in
2011.
"We are concerned because our absorption of capital expenditure funds only reached 79 percent," he asserted.
BPS chief Suryamin said that the government should have increased its
spending on consumption which slightly grew by 1.25% in 2012.
"Government consumption expenditure is low due to efficient use of goods
and moratorium on the recruitment of civil servants, so that the growth
rate decreases," Suryamin explained.
But the 6.23 percent economic growth was relatively high compared with
those of other advanced and developing nations, he added.
According to Suhariyanto, statistics deputy chief for trade balance and
analysis of BPS, Indonesia's economic growth at 6.23 percent was one of
the highest in the world after that of China, even if it failed to meet
the government's target.
"It is true that we failed to achieve the target but amid global
economic crisis at present, Indonesia's economic growth is the second
biggest after China's," he said
Minister Agus said now was a good
time for the government to conduct review and to utilize the present
good economic growth to narrow the social economic gap among the
country's citizens.
"The 6.23 percent become an input for the government to conduct a
review and to further boost and optimize inclusive economic growth," the
finance minister said.
In anticipation of trade deficit, BPS chief Suryamin suggested
that the government should diversify its export market to maintain
export growth and reduce imports of consumer goods.
He said that the government also has to begin to increase investment as
it can encourage the growth of other economic sectors.
"For its part, it need to develop labor-intensive industries so that we
do not merely rely on capital-intensive sectors or services. This way,
farmers can process their agricultural produce and increase their
income," he said.
Suhariyanto added that the growing
investment sector is badly needed to maintain the country's economic
growth in 2013 as well as to anticipate a shortfall in exports due to
the crisis.
"Infrastructure is needed to increase investment. In addition, the
investment climate must be good so that productivity will be getting
better," he said. The government has set the economic growth target for
2013 at 6.6 - 6.8 percent.
Besides, Deputy Trade Minister Bayu Krisnamurthi also suggested
that pressures should not continuously be made. After all, the price of
crude had exceeded US$110 per barrel. This will put pressures on
Indonesia's trade balance.
He said that the country's oil and gas trade balance was the only one
which was in critical condition. This requires the government to
safeguard the energy sources at home which could also contribute income
to the state.
"Regarding deficit in the first quarter of 2013, I do not want to make a
speculation. I am afraid if I make a speculation, it would really
become true," he said after attending a coordination meeting that
discussed the government work plans.
He said that the possible solution was a policy that should be taken by
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Jero Wacik to reduce the
state's trade deficit.
"On what form of policy, let's leave it to the energy and mineral resources minister," he said.***3***
(T.A014/o001)
(T.A. Abdussalam/A/A. Abdussalam/A/O. Tamindael) 08-02-2013 11:46:0 |
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