RI EXPECTS MODERATE IMPACT OF EL NINO

By Andi Abdussalam

Jakarta, July 29 (ANTARA) - Experts have predicted that El Nino, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries, will begin hitting the Asian region, including Indonesia, later this year and will last until 2010.

        National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists this month announced the arrival of El Nino. "Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions E Nino may bring," Jane Lubchenco, NOAA administrator, said in its Website.

        Indonesia, a country once severely affected by the climate phenomenon in 1997, has predicted that it will not have an extreme impact on or cause protracted drought in the country.

        "The temperature in Indonesia will relatively be moderate and there will be no protracted drought. If El Nino does happen we basically are now ready with what we have to do," Director for Environment Affairs of the National Development Planning Board (Bappenas) Edi Effendi said on Tuesday.

        The same opinion was also expressed by deputy to the minister for agricultural and maritime affairs, Bayu Krisnamurti.

        Krisnmurti said that the impact of the 2009-2010 El Nino-triggered drought would not be as worse as that in the 1997-1998 dry spell, when over nine million hectares of forest were damaged and affected rice production, forcing the government to import at least five million tons of rice.

        This year, the government seems to have no need to import the basic staple. It assured that the impact of this year's El Nino-triggered drought could be controlled so that it has no plan yet to import rice.

        "There is no pressing need to import rice yet," Bayu Krisnamurti said on Monday. After all, rice production this year is much higher than that in the 1997-1989 dry season.

        He said that the country's second rice production forecast showed an increase of 3.71 percent, or the equivalent of 62.56 million tons of unhusked rice if compared with that in 2008.

        Based on the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG)'s prediction, the September-October 2009 El Nino is expected to have a moderate impact, though it would become stronger in November 2009.

        Krisnamurti said that based on the experience in the 1997-1998 period, the El Nino weather phenomenon caused a serious drought impact as the sea water temperature at that time was lower. But this year, the BMKG predicted that the sea temperature would still be warmer. This means that drought would not cause a severe impact as that in the 1997-1998 El Nino.

        Although it predicts the impact of the El Nino phenomenon would not be too severe, Indonesia remains alert. According to Edi Effendi of Bappenas, the impact of El Nino is moderate this time. "But the El Nino phenomenon will surely affect various sectors such as forestry, agriculture, marine and other related sectors," he said.

        Effendi said that the El Nino phenomenon and the projection of the climate behavior in the coming five years would be taken as a factor for consideration by the government in adopting a policy with regard to the environment.

        Therefore, the Bappenas called on all sides which are related with the environment to work out a program that could be integrated into a middle-term national plan.

        In this case, the Bappenas called on the Bandung-based Institute of Technology (ITB), the Institute of National Aviation and Space (LAPAN), the Meteorology, BMKG and other related agencies to conduct academic studies to know the behavior of the climate change in Indonesia.

        Besides, all regional governments are also requested to take anticipatory steps in the face of the advent of the El Nino. The request was made by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on Tuesday.

        The president has said recently that the impact of El-Nino in Indonesia in September 2009 would still be small. However, its influence at the end of the year or early in 2010, is still unknown. Thus, the BMKG would continue monitoring it.

        "One thing for sure is that up to September the climate condition would still be in the save level in the sense that there would be no extreme drought, while afterwards, we are still waiting for the studies of BMKG in August," Yudhoyono said.

        Therefore, as an anticipatory step, the government is preparing reserve funds of Rp1 trillion to Rp2 trillion for efforts to anticipate the impact of El Nino on the country's agriculture in 2010.

        According to Acting Economic Affairs Coordinating Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the reserve funds are included in the draft 2010 state budget and aimed at maintaining national food security.

        "The draft state budget will include reserve funds for (the impact of El Nino), rice for the poor and so forth. Subsidies are included for fertilizers and seeds as was used to be done to maintain food security," she said.

        She said that the El Nino climate phenomenon was expected to reach a peak in 2010 when about 80 thousands to 150 thousands hectares of paddy fields would experience a drought. About 10 thousand to 35 thousand hectares of rice fields are expected to be unable to yield rice that could be harvested.

        As a result, about 750 thousand tons of unhusked rice and 300 thousand farmers would be affected in 2010. It was thought that the drought this year would not be as severe as that in 1997.

        In 1997, the El Nino phenomenon brought about damage to 9.7 million hectares of forests in Indonesia. It cut rice production, raised its price by 30 percent and forced the government to import five million tons of the staple.***3*** (T.A014/A/H-NG/A/O001 (T.A014/A/A014/A/O001) 29-07-2009 11:31:09