By Andi Abdussalam
Jakarta, Aug 10 (ANTARA) - Economists and businessmen are optimistic Indonesia's economic growth will reach seven percent next year, much higher than the government's projection of 4 percent - 4.5 percent.
"Driven by the global economic recovery which is expected to take place in the middle of next year, the Indonesian economy may grow 6 percent - 7 percent in 2010," economist Dr Rizal Ramli said.
According to Rizal Ramli, it would be too easy for the government to achieve its economic target of five percent. "It is too easy to achieve the economic growth target of 5 percent and the government does not need to work hard," he said.
However, it would be able to achieve the economic growth rate of 6 percent - 7 percent next year if it made bold breakthroughs and worked hard.
At the same time, it should make a bold breakthrough or otherwise the Indonesian economy would not grow significantly and Indonesia would lag behind other Asian countries, he said.
Optimism about Indonesia's ability to achieve a seven percent economic growth rate next year was also expressed by vice presidential candidate Boediono. Boediono based his optimism on the easing of the global economic crisis in 2010.
"I am convinced the national economic growth will reach seven percent in 2010," Boediono said.
In order to boost economic growth to the seven percent level, the Yudhoyono-Boediono ticket has promised to take initial steps in developing infrastructures and other facilities such as roads.
Boediono said that the construction of roads would contribute greatly to the opening of the people's economic access and would invite foreign investment.
"Roads will boost economic growth," Bodiono said. Boediono who was running as the vice presidential candidate of incumbent president Yudhoyono in the recent presidential race, said that the next government would also promote development of health and educational infrastructures.
Development of health and education infrastructures was very important for the development of the country's human resources for raising its human development index, he said.
"I think development of these types of infrastructure will boost the people's economy," Boediono said.
The vice presidential candidate said that at present foreign and domestic investment had begun to grow due to the fact that the global economic crisis was now in the process of receding, and this would generate national economic growth.
Besides, the government would also carry out seven priority development programs. "I am optimistic that economic growth will reach seven percent in 2010," he said.
In the meantime, the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) said the government's national economic growth target of 5 percent should be increased to 6 percent.
"The global economy, particularly the US economy, is expected to recover next year. This will have a positive impact on the national economy," Kadin chairman MS Hidayat said.
He criticized the government's 4 percent - 4.5 percent growth target, saying it would make it difficult for the real sector to develop.
"Five percent is less effective. It should be at least six percent," Hidayat said.
"I think, the draft 2010 state budget is less expansive in the eyes of the business community," the Kadin chairman said, adding that the five percent economic growth target set by the government was ineffective.
Hidayat said if the domestic real sector grew well and was balanced with bureaucratic improvements, economic growth in 2010 could be stepped up to six percent.
In the draft 2010 state budget, the government has set the economic growth rate target for 2010 at 4 percent - 4.5 percent.
Referring to the government's economic growth target as unveiled by President Yudhoyono recently, Rizal Ramli said he was surprised. "The Indonesian economy may grow by 6 percent - 7 percent in 2010 because if we look at the current trends, the world economy will begin to recover in the middle of next year," Rizal said.
He said the government-set economic growth target of 5 percent implied that it had not prepared new breakthroughs to boost economic growth next year.
Economist Sri Adiningsih of Yogyakarta-based Gadjah Mada University (UGM) said the country's economic growth might exceed 5 percent thanks to the expected global economic recovery next year.
She said the global economy had yet to fully recover from the crisis as reflected by negative growth in a number of countries.
But this was not the case with the Indonesian economy which was projected to grow 4.5 percent in 2009, she said.
She said the global economic recovery would have the potential of increasing the prices of primary products, particularly natural resources-based commodities, such as palm oil, minerals, oil and gas.***2*** (T.A014/A/HAJM/17:16/a014) (T.A014/A/A014/A/A014) 10-08-2009 19:14:49
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