Jakarta, April 4 (Antara) - Twelve political parties at the national
level will conclude their campaigns on Saturday and enter the
cooling-down period on Sunday, prior to the upcoming April 9 legislative
elections.
During the 21-day campaign period, which began March 16, all political
parties organized campaigns and disclosed their programs in regions
across the country in efforts to attract the support of 186.8 million
eligible voters and win a portion of the 560 available parliamentary
seats.
Surveys show that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP)
and the Golkar Party will be in a tight race to win first place in next
week's legislative elections, while third place is expected to be won by
the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra).
The Political Communication Institute (Polcomm Institute), the Charta
Politika Indonesia (CPI) and the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI)
surveys placed the three political parties, PDIP, Golkar and Gerindra,
as the would-be big three winners of the legislative elections.
For PDIP, the naming of popular Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo, better
known as Jokowi, serves as a magnet that boosts its electability and
will increase the votes it receives in the 2014 general elections.
"PDIP
is able to raise its electability to 23.1 percent based upon
respondent's choices after it nominated Jokowi as its presidential
hopeful," Polcomm Institute Director Heri Budianto told a press
conference on Thursday.
Heri explained that respondents were of the view that PDIP, which had
been consistently taking the opposition side, defending the common
people and, as a nationalist party, promoting the ideology of the
founding father and first president Soekarno.
PDIP, in the 2009 legislative elections, secured third place, winning
14.03 percent of the total votes. Their total, however, was below the
ruling Democratic Party (PD), which won first place and secured 20.85
percent votes, and Golkar Party, which won 14.45 percent of the votes,
taking second place.
Heri said that based on his institute's survey results, Golkar is
expected to win second place with 17.3 percent and Gerindra will finish
in third place with 7.7 percent. In the 2009 elections, Gerindra was
ranked in the eighth position, winning only 4.46 percent.
The Polcomm Institute survey results placed the ruling party PD in
fourth place in the upcoming election with 5.1 percent, followed by
National Democrat (NasDem), which is a new party, with 4.5
percent. "However, respondents who did not yet make a choice reached
23.3 percent," Heri said.
He explained that Golkar secured second place because the New Order
government's political machine had the ability in managing the party and
had experience in politics and government.
Golkar was also viewed by respondents as the most mature political
party, which had the ability to raise campaign themes which highlighted
leadership issues and prosperity during the government of former
president Soeharto.
"The Gerindra Party is placed in the third position because respondents
saw new expectations from Prabowo Subianto, who they view as being firm
and wielding authority," Heri said.
The Democratic Party was still trusted by the survey's respondents,
because the party is led by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and will continue
Yudhoyono's programs, according to Heri.
The Polcomm Institute director said that respondents choose NasDem
party because they are convinced that as a new political party, it will
bring new hope and change to Indonesia. The Polcomm Institute conducted
the survey on March 19-29, 2014, using a random sampling method. It has a
margin error of 2.9 percent.
The same survey results were also shown by the Charta Politika
Indonesia (CPI), which placed PDIP, Golkar and Gerindra in first, second
and third places.
Based on the results of the public opinion survey conducted from March 1
to March 8, the three political parties could not be defeated by other
electoral contestants. This survey also showed that Gerindra shifted to
the big three, removing the ruling Democratic Party position from the
big three.
In a December 2013 survey, PDIP's was only receiving 15.5 percent of
the total votes, but in March it rose to 21.2 percent. The Golkar Party
also rose from 12.6 percent to 16.4 percent and Gerindra from 7.8
percent to 12 percent.
"Popularity factors, including the popularity of party figures, has
influence in this survey," Director of Charta Politika, Yunarto Wijaya,
said.
About 57.8 percent of respondents said they chose PDIP because they
were interested in Jokowi. The same was also true of Gerindra, where
47.9 percent of the respondents said they were attracted by Prabowo
Subianto. In the December 2013 survey, 55.4 percent of respondents said
they were interested in Gerindra because Prabowo was a former Commandant
General of the Army's elite special force, Kopassus.
"We found a unique reason with Golkar, where 32.8 percent said they
chose Golkar because it represents the New Order government-Soeharto,"
Yunarto said.
If PDIP, Golkar and Geridra are competing for the top big three
position, the winning party in the 2009 legislative elections, namely
the ruling Democratic Party, will be competing in the middle position,
together with the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the United
Development Party (PPP).
PPP and PKB, respectively, were in the sixth and seventh positions in
the 2009 elections with 5.32 percent and 4.94 percent of the votes.
In the meantime, the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) survey results
also show that the PDIP, Golkar and Gerindra were in the top three
positions.
Golkar and PDIP will be the parties that have a chance to win the
legislative elections on April 9, according to the survey results.
"Based on the complete results of political parties' electability in
March, Golkar gets 21.9 percent while PDIP 21.1 percent," LSI researcher
Adjie Alfarabi reiterated at a press conference on Wednesday.
He explained that if the margin of votes between the two parties was
slim, then Golkar would have a chance to receive more parliamentary
seats than PDIP, because Golkar's vote distribution is wider and spread
evenly, especially in regions outside Java, while PDIP's votes are still
concentrated in Java.
He added that the two parties' votes will be difficult to overcome by
other political parties, in view of the parties' electability.
Adjie predicted that Gerindra will finish third with 11.1 percent of
the votes, followed by the ruling Democrat Party (7.6 percent), PKB (5.9
percent), Prosperous Justice Party/PKS (5.2 percent), People Conscience
Party/Hanura (4.5 percent), Nasdem (4.3 percent), PPP (3.4 percent),
National Mandate Party/PAN (3.0 percent), PBB (0.9 percent) and
Indonesian Justice and Unity Party/PKPI (0.5) percent.
PAN and Hanura were in the fifth and ninth positions (they win 6.01
percent and 3.7 percent of the votes) in the 2009 elections, while the
NasDem and PKPI are new electoral contestants.
According to LSI, only 10 parties will be able to send their
representatives to the parliament, namely PDIP, Golkar, Gerindra,
Democrat Party, PKB, PKS, Hanura, Nasdem, PPP and PAN.
"Although the electability of PPP and PAN is below 3.5 percent, the two
still have a chance to pass the parliamentary threshold," Alfarabi
asserted.***1***
(T.A014/INE/H-YH)
(T.A014/A/BESSR/A/Yosep) 04-04-2014 22:5 |
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