JOKOWI PREDICTED TO WIN JAKARTA GUBERNATORIAL RUNOFF

By Andi Abdussalam

Jakarta, Sept 19 (ANTARA) - Two research institutions have predicted that Joko Widodo (paired with Basuki Tjahaja Purnama) will beat rival incumbent Jakarta Governor Fauzi Bowo (paired with Nachrowi Ramli) by a narrow margin to win the Jakarta gubernatorial runoff on Thursday.          The Jokowi-Ahok pair will contest against Foke-Nara in the second round of the Jakarta gubernatorial elections after winning the first round on July 7.          Jokowi won 43 percent of the votes, falling short of the 51 percent majority needed to conclusively win the Jakarta gubernatorial elections.          In the first round of the polls, there were six pairs of contestants: Fauzi Bowo-Nachrowi Ramli, Hendardji Soepandji-Ahmad Riza Patria, Joko Widodo-Basuki Tjahja Purnama, Hidayat Nur Wahid-Didik J Rachbini, Faisal Basrie-Biem Benjamin and Alex Nurdin-Nono Sumpono.          A former Jakarta deputy governor (during the term of governor Sutiyoso), Fauzi Bowo is the incumbent Jakarta governor who rose to the position after winning the gubernatorial elections five years ago. Jokowi is the incumbent mayor of Solo, Central Java.          Research institutions, PoliticaWave and Indo Barometer, have predicted that the Jokowi-Ahok pair was likely to win the elections runoff 'by a nose'. Their predictions are based on social media monitoring results.          "Based on the results of media monitoring up to September 12, 2012, 54.9 percent people were in favour of the Jokowi-Ahok pair, while the remaining 45.1 percent supported the Foke-Nara pair," said Yose Rizal, the director of PoliticaWave, on Tuesday.         The possible defeat of Foke-Nara was also predicted by survey institute Indo Barometer. "We make the prediction based on the results of a survey by daily Kompas, which was published today," Indo Barometer Director M Qodari said on Thursday  last week.          The results of the survey indicated a slim victory for the Jokowi-Ahok pair over the Foke-Nara pair.          "The victory of Jokowi could be predicted on basis of the contestants' electability, attitude and competence," Qodari explained.          "Regarding electability, the Jokowi-Ahok pair has a higher electability figure of 45.13 percent, compared with that of the Foke-Nara duo, which has 37.53 percent," he added.          Meanwhile, Yose Rizal stated: "The Jokowi-Ahok pair won more positive sentiments with an index of 18.51 percent, while the Foke-Nara partner won more negative sentiments with an index of 11.38 percent."     "We can conclude from this analysis that Jokowi and Ahok will have a slim victory over their competitors Foke and Nara in the Jakarta gubernatorial runoff on Thursday," Yose added.          He said the social media monitoring results also indicated that SARA (sensitive issues of religious, racial, ethnic and group differences) did not influence voters¿ decisions.          Basuki Tjahja Purnama, or Ahok, who is an ethnic Chinese Indonesian, was formerly a district head in Bangka Belitung province, Sumatra. His Chinese and religious backgrounds have not negatively affected his electability.          "Even though certain parties have allegedly raised the SARA issue, we found that it did not affect the sentiments of internet users or net citizens," Yose noted.          "Jakarta voters are becoming increasingly smart and their decision is influenced by corruption and human rights issues rather than SARA issues,¿ he pointed out.          Yose explained that his analysis was based on the monitoring of more than 2 million conversations in various social media, such as Twitter, Facebook, blogs and other forums.          Qodari also based his assessment on social media monitoring.          "I came to this conclusion [that Jokowi would win] after taking into account the vote percentage of both contestants, which was collected in the first round of elections, multiplied by their respective loyal voters. I have also factored in additional voters among the supporters of contestants who failed in the first round. All of it is based on the figures of the Kompas survey," he explained.         "The second aspect is the public assessment of the contestants¿ positive attitude and competence, where the Jokowi-Ahok pair gets higher credit than the Foke-Nara pair. The Jokowi-Ahok pair is more popular in the upper circles of voters, particularly among the upper middle class," Qodari added.         The survey results indicate that only 15 percent of the 'highly educated' voters assessed that the competence level of Foke-Nara was higher than that of Jokowi-Ahok. Some 45 percent felt the Jokowi-Ahok duo was more competent, while 40 percent felt both pairs had the same level of competence.          Among the 'middle-educated' voters, 25 percent considered the competence level of Foke-Nara to be higher than that of their competitors. Some 34 percent felt the Jokowi-Ahok pair was more competent, while 41 percent said both pairs had the same competence levels.         Lastly, 26 percent of 'low-educated' voters felt that Foke-Nara's competence was higher than that of Jokowi-Ahok. Approximately 35 percent considered the Jokowi-Ahok pair to be more competent, while 39 percent voters in the segment felt that both competitors had the same competence levels.          Therefore, Joko is seen as a strong candidate for Jakarta governor.          However, Fauzi enjoys the support of the ruling party and other members of the coalition parties under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.          Joko is supported only by Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) and the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra).          Ahead of the runoff on Thursday (September 20 ), he was a picture of humility.          "Our target with the supporters, sympathizers, volunteers and parties is to work hard," Joko stated.          He said if he won the elections, he would start his development efforts from Jakarta's slum areas.          Development of Jakarta should not start from the big business centres of Kuningan, Thamrin and Kota. Jakarta's slums will need to be developed into a healthy and environmentally friendly residential area, according to him.         "We will also improve the drainage system and develop townships with green and open public areas. The Jakarta city administration has a large budget. What it needs is determination to turn plans into reality," Joko pointed out.***1*** (T.A014/A/KR-BSR/A/A014) 19-09-2012 17:33:44