Jakarta, Jan 5 (ANTARA) - After going down a year earlier on global financial crisis, Indonesia's exports, particularly non oil/gas ones, are expected to regain strength this year with an estimated increase of about 6 to 7 percent.
"We are more optimistic about export growth based on the assumption that the non-oil/non-gas export volume in the 2010 state budget is 6-7.5 percent," Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangestu said on Tuesday.
Data showed that Indonesia's non-oil exports in 2009 kept improving in line with global economic recovery, though the export performance is expected to remain below the 2008 figure.
According to the head of the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Rusman Heriawan, Indonesia's exports in 2009 may drop by 10 percent as expected. "Total exports in 2009 will depend upon the performance in December. If it is good, total exports may drop only 10 percent as expected. Right now the value is still minus 13.17 percent for non-oil and gas exports," he said.
The BPS noted exports from January to November 2009 reached US$103.15 billion, dropping 19.5 percent from the same period of 2008. The value of non-oil and gas exports in the period reached US$86.64 billion, sliding 13.71 percent from the same period of 2008.
The BPS also reported earlier that Indonesia enjoyed a US$14.27 billion surplus in its trade balance in the January-October 2009 period even though its exports during the period experienced a decline.
"Our trade balance in October 2009 enjoys a surplus of US$2.41 billion and in the January-October 2009 period US$14.27 billion," Head of the Central Board of Statistics (BPS) Rusman Heriawan said
However, the accumulative values of Indonesia's exports in the January-October 2009 period were recorded at US$92.03 billion, down 22.31 percent in the corresponding period a year earlier.
But the value of Indonesia's exports for the January - November 2009 was recorded at US$103.15 billion which was a drop of about 19.5 percent compared with that in the same period in 2008.
Though it dropped by 13.71 percent in 2009, non-oil/gas exports are expected to increase in 2010 in line with the global economic recovery.
"Exports in 2010 will be positive along with the global economic growth by about 3.2 percent, especially in the emerging markets such as China and India which are expected to see rapid growth.
Pangestu explained that during 2009, the market segment of Indonesian exports in emerging market countries like China increased from 6.2 percent in 2004 to 8.9 percent in 2009.
"It shows that China's economic growth is good and there is potential use of lower tariffs for certain products such as crude palm oil (CPO). Before the free trade agreement (FTA)'s implementation, CPO exports used a quota, but after the FTA the quota system will be phased out," he said.
Besides China, the market segment of Indonesia's exports to India also rose from 3.7 percent in 2004 to about 5 percent in 2009.
"The market segment of our products in South Korea rose from 3.3 percent in 2004 to 5.2 percent in 2009. The emerging markets in Asia were still in positive growth in 2010 and the growth will remain
high," she said.
Non-oil/non-gas exports to Indonesia's traditional markets such as the United States, Japan and European Union which dropped during the global economic crisis were expected to increase in 2010.
"Some of our export products volume like textiles, electronic goods and other consumer goods are expected to increase," she said.
Like its exports in 2009, Indonesia's imports in that year also declined, namely by 28.75 percent. Indonesia's imports in November 2009 fell 6.39 percent to US$8.86 billion from a month earlier, bringing to US$86.58 billion the total imports in the first eleven months of last year.
"In the January-November 2009 period the total imports reached US$86.58 billion, down 28.75 percent from the same period in 2008," BPS Chief Rusman Heriawan said.
Non-oil/non-gas imports in November 2009 dropped 6.4 percent from the month before. In the January-November 2009 period non-oil/non-gas imports stood at US$69.69 billion, he said.
"China was the biggest supplier of our imported goods, with Japan and Singapore trailing behind," he said.
He said the import of raw/auxiliary materials dropped 33.71 percent, consumer goods 23.28 percent and capital goods 6.84 percent in November 2009 compared to a month earlier.
According to Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangestu, the volume of five consumer products subject to trade ministry regulation Number 56/2008, namely food, beverages, garments, electronics, shoes and toys also experienced a decline in 2009.
"The regulation has worked well. The importers are now registered and so we can see the pattern better," Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangestu.
She said imports of children's toys mostly from China had dropped significantly. Based on the trade ministry's record imports of children's toys from January to September in 2009 reached US$48.9 million or dropped by 33.8 percent compared to the same period of 2008.
(T.A014/A/HAJM/22:55/a014)
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