By Andi Abdussalam
Jakarta, Nov 12 (ANTARA) - With Indonesia's economic growth rate expected to reach 4.3 percent this year, the government is optimistic the figure will have gradually risen to as high as seven percent by 2014.
"Indonesia is now intensifying its development and minimizing the impact of the economic crisis. We hope this year economic growth will reach 4.3 percent. Admittedly it is much lower than the growth we had before the economic crisis but we are convinced it will continue to increase and reach 7 percent in 2014," President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday.
The president said he believed that with a just and stable economic growth, the development programs carried out by the government would be able to reduce poverty and unemployment, and improve the quality of the people's life.
In order to achieve the target, he said, the government would reinforce its partnerships with domestic and foreign private businesses, particularly with the aim of meeting the investment need of US$150-US$200 billion per year.
The president also expressed his conviction that the country's economic growth this year would reach 4.3 percent as projected in the state budget.
Yudhoyono's conviction is supported by the Bank Indonesia (BI/the central bank)'s prediction that Indonesia's economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 would reach 4.4 percent.
"We project an economic growth of 4.4 percent for the fourth quarter of 2009 compared with the 4.2 percent recorded in the third quarter," Hartadi said at a hearing with House of Representatives (DPR)'s Commission XI on financial affairs on Thursday.
Hartadi said that the increase in economic growth if compared with the previous third quarter was triggered by the consumption sector and investment.
After the economic meltdown, which caused many countries to experience negative economic growth, Indonesia is confident that it will be able to boost its economic growth gradually from 4.3 percent this year to 5.5 percent in 2010, 6 percent in 2011 and 7 percent in 2014.
Next year's target of 5.5 percent, for example, was quite achievable, according to an economic analyst.
"Indonesia's economic growth is able to reach 5.5 percent. I am convinced this target will be met," Bramantyo Djohanputro, director of Finance and HRD of PPM Management, said.
He said that with the people lowering the specifications of their expenditures, inflation which was feared to disturb economic growth could be curbed. Despite the fact that people would continue to spend money for their expenditure, they would be able to refrain from purchasing goods that could trigger inflation.
On the other hand, this form of self-restraint would not automatically reflect the weaknesses of their purchasing power. The relatively small number of worker layoffs in 2009 can reflect the real purchasing power of the people.
The ability of small- and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) to withstand global financial crises is, according to Bramantyo, not yet fully recorded. But based on his calculations, SMEs contributed a lot to the country's economic growth.
In order to achieve the 5.5 percent target, however, the government had to accomplish basic homework tasks, among others, improvement of the bureaucracy, infrastructure, security and legal certainties in the business sector.
"All this is important to encourage foreign companies to invest in Indonesia, including foreign investment made through the government-private partnerships (KPS) and public-private partnership (PPP) schemes," he said.
The other important thing to be carried out is to encourage the banking sector to play its intermediary role more intensively by distributing larger amounts of credits. Of course, in this case, the interest rates of third party funds, deposits in particular, should be lowered, beside cutting down the interest rate of state debentures (SUN).
In the meantime, chief analyst of Bank Indonesia (BI)'s Financial System Stability Bureau, Suhaedi said with the lowering of the BI key rate to 6.5 percent in stages it could help drive down banks' interest rates.
He said that what BI was doing now is trying to put banks' landing rates at an appropriate level, in the sense that it could be accepted by banks and customers.
While for 2011, the government has set its target at six percent. State Minister of National Development Planning/Head of the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) Armida S Alisjahbana said in 2011 the government will step up economic growth to six percent.
She said that the acceleration in 2011 was made as the world economy may have been restored to normal, increasing exports and investments.
Most economic obstacles may have been overcome in 2010, meeting the initial targets of the new government, so that in 2010 economic growth may at least reach 5.5 percent.
She said that under these circumstances, acceleration is possible, so that in 2014 economic growth could be expected to reach at least seven percent.
The acceleration would be successful if no external shock occurred such as an oil price hike to 160 US dollars per barrel, or a financial crisis like the one that happened in 2008.***2*** (T.A014/A/HAJM/18:40/a014) (T.A014/A/A014/A/A014) 12-11-2009 19:41:55
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