YUDHOYONO AWAITING COALITION STAND OF PDIP

By Andi Abdussalam

Jakarta, Oct 18 (ANTARA) - Though he has begun on Saturday fit-and-proper tests on some prospective ministers for his second edition United Indonesia Cabinet, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is still waiting for the decision of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) whether or not it will joint his Democratic Party (PD) coalition.

        "If PDIP decides to join the coalition a ministerial post will be made available for it but if it takes the opposition stance the ministerial post will go to other party," PD Deputy General Chairman Achmad Mubarok said.

        He said Yudhoyono who is the chief patron of PD, would wait PDIP's decision until Tuesday evening (October 20, 2009), the last minutes before he finally announces the composition of his cabinet for the 2009-2014 term.

        Mubarok said the president was likely to provide one or two ministerial posts for PDIP in the second edition United Indonesia Cabinet if it decided to join the coalition, but the decision must be made by PDIP leader Megawati Soekarnoputri, not by its cadres.

        Earlier, an SMS tax message circulated among journalists from Arisa Junaedi, a staffer of Megawati. Megawati, through the SMS message sent on her behalf, stressed that the aim of a political party was to fight for the people's aspirations not for a temporary interest. "Therefore, I call on the 94 PDIP cadres in the House of Representatives (DPR) to remain independent."

        The problem now being faced by PDIP is a division with regard its opposition stand against the government. While PDIP is willing to maintain its opposition, there is an idea to ask PDIP Secretary General Pramono Anung (now a DPR deputy), associate chairwoman Puan Maharani, daughter of Megawati, and PDIP senior figure Tjahyo Kumolo to join Yudhoyono's cabinet.

        "There are many PDIP cadres who are qualified for a ministerial post. But Megawai has made such a statement, I could not reject it. But if the cadres are asked to fill in a post in the cabinet, Megawati may not either reject it," Taufik Kiemas who has been named chairman of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) and who is also Megawati's own husband, said.

        Yudhoyono's offer to PDIP to join his government's coalition is basically an attempt to control the majority votes in the DPR. He wants to make sure he can run the country over the next five years without political trouble.

        "To ensure that his administration in the next five years will be stable and secure, political support in the executive as well as legislative branches must be made dominant," observer Muhammad Qodari, executive director of Indo Barometer, said.

        Virtually, with its coalition formed before the presidential elections, PD has controlled 56.07 percent (314 seats) of the House of Representatives. But this is not yet considered safe. That is why PD is keen on coalescing with Golkar Party (with 107 seats in the House) and PDIP (95 seats).

        Golkar has officially declared its decision to join Yudhoyono's coalition. The coalition was the result of Golkar's first meeting led by its new general chairman, Aburizal Bakrie Thursday after the party held its national congress in Pekanbaru, Riau province recently.

        According to Qodari, the PD-led coalition without Golkar and PDIP will have only 314 votes in the DPR or 56.07 percent of the House membership and this is still unsafe for the stability of Yudhoyono's administration in the coming five years. If one of the supporting parties reneged on its commitment to support him, Yudhoyono's power base in the parliament could drop to less than 50 percent and this was not safe.

        Therefore, Qodari said, Yudhoyono was still making efforts to include the Golkar Party and PDIP in his coalition. Golkar with 107 seats in the parliament had already agreed to support him but he still had yet to get the support of PDIP that had 95 seats in the parliament.

        However, considering that PDIP's chief Megawati Soekarnoputri had remained silent over Yudhoyono's overtures, Qodari predicted PDIP would choose to stay out of the next administration.

        He said if PDIP stayed out of the government while Golkar coalesced with the government, the votes that would support the next government in the parliament could reach 421 or 75.17 percent while the votes outside the coalition, namely from PDIP, Gerindra and Hanura would total 139.

        "With this equation, Yudhoyono's government in the next five years will be safe and stable," he said. However, in practical politics communications among the supporting parties could not be guaranteed to be always harmonious but could be dynamic in line with their respective interests.

        Supposed that PDIP in last minutes decides to join his coalition government, President Yudhoyono will practically face no major opposition in running his government. With a parliament mostly consisting of representatives of pro-government parties, parliamentary control over the government would never be strong enough because it was not likely that these parties would be able to exercise effective supervision over their own cadres in the government.

        Therefore, extra-parliamentary forces like academics, the press and non-governmental organizations should play a greater role in watching over the new government as Yudhoyono is to have "single majority" clout in the parliament, political observer Mikael Tommy Susu of the Political and Social Sciences of the Unika Widya Mandira University, said.

        "Therefore, the only parties that are expected to be able to watch over the conduct of the government are academics who are still neutral, non-governmental organization activists and the press. Only these forces will be free to counter-balance the big parties coalescing with the Yudhoyono government over the next five years," Mikael said.***1*** (T.A014/A/f001) (T.A014/A/A014/A/F001) 18-10-2009 11:46:4