GOLKAR PLAYS PENDULUM FOR PARTY COALITION

By Andi Abdussalam

Jakarta, April 10 (ANTARA) - With the Democratic Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) respectively ranked first and second in Thursday's legislative elections based on quick counts, Golkar, which was ranked third, can play the pendulum in the middle for the formation of a coalition, political scientists say.

        "Golkar can play the pendulum key in the formation of a coalition between the Democratic Party, on the one hand, and the PDIP, on the other. Golkar which won less than 15 percent of the votes has the potential to be included in a coalition with any party," political scientist of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) Hermawan Sulistyo said.

        The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) announced on Friday the results of its quick count on samples of Thursday's legislative elections where 38 political parties vied for 560 seats in the House.

        The LSI said the Democratic Party won 20.48 percent of the votes followed by PDI-P with 14.33 percent Golkar Party with 13.95 percent, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) 7.85 percent, the National Mandate Party (PAN) 5.72 percent, the United Development Party (PPP) 5.24 percent, the National Awakening Party (PKB) 5.12 percent, the Greater Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party 4.59 percent, the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) 3.78 percent, and the Crescent and Star Party (PBB) 1.70 percent.

        With that constellation, the presidential elections which will be held next July could proceed in one round as long as the Democratic Party is able to carry out political lobbying and coalesce with the most suitable parties.

        "If the Democratic Party is smart enough to lobby other political parties, especially if it also includes Golkar, it would be able to leave the PDIP and the Gerindra behind. And if this happens, the presidential election will likely be held in one round only," he added.

        However, it is also quite possible for Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla to join PDIP but in this case the Democratic Party could split Golkar supporters by picking other Golkar cadres. If the Democratic Party is willing to coalesce with Golkar there would possibly be only two pairs of presidential candidates so that the elections would be held in one round only.

        "So, whether or not the number of presidential pairs would be two or three it would be determined by the smartness of the Democratic Party in conducting political lobbies," Sulistyo said.

        "On the other hand, if Golkar wants to coalesce with the Democratic Party it has to compete with PKS. Likewise, a coalition with PDIP would cause Jusuf Kalla to compete with Megawati Soekarnoputri as their presidential hopeful or he has to be satisfied with the running mate position," Sulistyo said

        Political observer of the University of Indonesia (UI) Yon Machmudi meanwhile said that the most suitable partner for Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to pair up in the Democratic Party's presidential candidates would be Hidayat Nurwahid of PKS.

        "Hidayat Nurwahid, who is clean, is suitable to represent the majority of Indonesian Muslims," he said. However, pairing up with Nurwahid would cause Yudhoyono to secure smaller support in the parliament if compared to the support he would win if he has a running mate from the Golkar Party, he said.

        In this case, the Democratic Party can still build strength by including the PPP, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the National Mandate Party (PAN) in its coalition, he added. "Maybe, for the time being, it is necessary for Golkar to be excluded from the government so that Indonesia would enjoy a political change, Machmudi said.

        Actually, according to Machmudi, Yudhoyono is no longer convenient with Kalla. He possibly wanted to let Kalla go but on the other hand he still wanted to maintain Golkar as well. "Here, Akbar Tanjung has the chance," he added.

        If Golkar is not included in the Democratic Party coalition or in PDIP, it still has a chance to win the presidential contest by coalescing with other functional-based parties. "Although the votes gained by Golkar declined, it still can win the presidential contest if it works together with functional-based parties," Senior Golkar figure Pinantun Hutasoit.

        He said that if Golkar intended to win the presidential race, it should conduct a consolidation with other functional-based parties by consolidating in real terms first.

        Hutasoit said the parties he referred to were parties which were formed by Golkar former cadres such as the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) and others.

        "If they had such intention they have to do it with full consciousness and should throw away their respective arrogance. In this way I think they still could win the presidential ontest," he said.

        But it seems that the Democratic Party has not yet totally closed the door to a coalition with Golkar, at least it was reflected in Yudhoyono's statement on Friday that his party was open for a coalition with any party as long as it has a strong determination to bring success to the nation and willing to have a coalition based on a political charter.

        "For me, parties which are suitable to join a coalition with the Democratic Party, no matter what ideologies they have, are those which have a strong determination and ready for a cooperation," he said. ***1*** (T.A014/A/H-NH/a014) (T.A014/A/A014/A/A014) 11-04-2009 00:33:44