LAST TWO MONTHS THIS YEAR 'INJURY TIME' FOR VIY 2008

By Andi Abdusslam

      Jakarta, Nov 11 (ANTARA) - With the end of 2008 less than two months away, and the total number of foreign tourist arrivals so far only recorded at 4.57 million, there is rising concern that the 'Visit Indonesia Year 2008' target of attracting seven million foreign visitors may not be achieved.

        Yet, Tourism and Culture Minister Jero Wacik says the remaining two months in this year is comparable to the injury time in soccer matches where hard work will be decisive in determining the end-result. So, he expressed optimism that the VIY 2008 target will be reached.

        Fearing a possible backlash of the execution of Bali bombing death-row convicts Amrozi et al and the impact of the global financial crisis, tourism industries at home are questioning the possibility of reaching the target of seven million tourist arrivals.

        "This month, the number of foreign tourist arrivals has fallen quite steeply because tourists are afraid that the execution of Amrozi et al will spark unrest," the chairman of the Association of Indonesian Tour and Travel Agencies (ASITA), Ben Sukma, said.

        Sukma predicted the number of foreign tourist arrivals in November would decline by 30 percent. "The decline in the number of foreign tourist arrivals could reach 30 percent this month," he said.

        The ASITA chairman's prediction was based on the fact that the decline in the number of foreign tourist arrivals was felt almost in all tourist destinations in Java, particularly in Yogyakarta, Solo and Bandung, as well as in Bali.

        He said that if up to November 15, the inflow of foreign tourists had remained low, it would indicate that the target of seven million tourists would not be achieved.

        "We will wait until November 15. If the small arrival number remains unchanged, the country will not achieve the target. The optimal figure that could be expected is 6.3 million or 5.8 million at the lowest," he said.

        Besides pessimistic voices about the VIY target, there were also optimistic views.

        About a possible backlash of the Bali bombers' execution, an observer said, just as had happened with previous executions, the event would sink into oblivion soon enough.

        In fact, he said, with the Bali bombers' execution, tourist destinations in the country, particularly the Indonesian tourist resort province of Bali, will again enjoy increasing visits by foreign tourists.

        The world, including the Australian people who lost 88 of their compatriots in the Bali bombings in 2002, will soon forget the execution so that Bali is expected to see an increased number of holiday makers during this year's X'mas and the 2009 New Year.

        "Thank God, the execution was done eight weeks before the peak of the year end holiday season. It seems that Bali will be very busy receiving an increased number of foreign tourists because in a few days from now the public will have forgotten the execution," Bali's tourism observer I Nyoman Darma Putra said.

        Putra, who is the author of "Tourism, Development and Terrorism in Bali" said in the next two days, Indonesia, particularly Bali, would be completely safe from terrorist attacks.

        "If nothing happens in the next few days, Australian tourists who were worried about security in Bali after the Australian government issued a travel warning, are expected to spend their holidays in Bali at the year end," he said.

        In the meantime, the chairman of the Indonesia Conference and Convention Association (INCCA), Iqbal Allan Abdullah, predicted that this year about 6 to 6.5 million foreign tourists would arrive in Indonesia.

        "This figure, if achieved, will be a good achievement because it means a relatively high increase, namely about 12.3 percent, compared with the figure a year earlier," he said.

        Tourism and Culture Minister Jero Wacik continues to be optimistic that the target of seven million foreign tourist arrivals this year will be achieved.

        The minister said his optimism was based on mathematical and rational calculations. Last year, when various accidents related to tourism occurred, it turned out that the number of foreign tourists visiting Indonesia had remained high, reaching 5.5 million and contributing US$5.3 million to the country's foreign exchange earnings.

        The minister said that if provisional statistical data was taken into account, the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia this year will reach a figure between 6.4 million and 6.6 million.

        The cumulative number of foreign visitors from January to September 2008 was recorded at 4.57 million. This represented an increase of 12.19 percent compared with that in a corresponding period in 2007.

        "If the average number of foreign visitors is 600,000 a month, there will be 1.8 million arrivals in the September-December 2008 period so that it is estimated that at the end of the VIY 2008, the number of foreign tourist arrivals will total 6.4 million," the minister said.

        This meant that the VIY 2008 target will be achieved. The government has set a VIY 2008 target within a range of three grades, namely 7 million (optimistic target), 6.5 million (moderate) and 6 million (pessimistic target).

        Yet, the target of seven million remains a priority.

        "The last two months of the Visit Indonesia Year 2008 program can be compared to the 'injury time' in soccer matches. So we should utilize this remaining time in the best possible way because it will be decisive in determining the end-result," the minister said. ***3*** (T.A014/A/HAJM/A/S012) 11-11-2008 18:59:33